Friday February 24th, 2023 Richard Adler on the Law of Unintended Consequences (LUC)

Why do so many critical business and policy decisions go awry? And what can leaders do to improve decision quality and outcomes? In this talk, Richard Adler will answer the first question using the Law of Unintended Consequences (LUC), which states that attempts to intervene in complex situations tend to produce unexpected and often unpleasant consequences. He will review the Law’s primary causes—cognitive biases and bounded rationality—and explain how they wreak havoc. The second question is answered by describing a method for “test-driving” decisions that helps to combat these causes. This method combines scenario planning and “what-if” simulations to help leaders practice critical decisions and learn safely from virtual rather than real mistakes. Decision test drives help organizations improve their anticipation of the future and reduce the frequency and severity of unintended consequences, thereby “bending” the Law. Finally, Rich will illustrate the test drive method by applying it to decisions about managing organizational risk. This example focuses on improving strategies for DHS agencies to counter terrorist threats against critical national infrastructures.

Richard Adler is a software architect, management consultant, and start-up executive. He spent most of his career building software tools and applications to improve business operations and critical decision-making. Richard worked for Control Data, MITRE, Computer Sciences Corporation, and three software start-up companies. Early in his career, Richard built AI programs, including one that automated operations support for the Launch Processing System for NASA’s Space Shuttle Fleet. As the founder of DecisionPath, he developed solutions to improve strategic decisions such as competitive marketing, counterterrorism, and organizational change, as described in his recent book Bending the Law of Unintended Consequences. Richard has also published and spoken on topics including intelligent and distributed systems, simulation, homeland security, and knowledge management. Richard holds a BS degree in Physics and Philosophy (University of Michigan), an MS in Physics (University of Illinois at Urbana) and a PhD in Philosophy of Physics (University of Minnesota).